Traders use Polymarket to predict outcomes, but the platform itself doesn't predict future events. It measures how the crowd currently estimates probability based on available information, similar to ...

Researchers compared the estimation of the presence of disease by primary care clinicians and an expert panel. Primary care clinicians overestimate the probability of disease before and after ...

The problem of estimating the variance of the ratio estimator in sampling with probability proportional to aggregate size is investigated. The form of nonnegative unbiased variance estimators is found ...

New research uncovers why an increase in probability feels riskier than a decrease. The research falls under the realm of subjective probability, also known as likelihood or risk. While past research ...

This is a preview. Log in through your library . Abstract 1 Extinction is a fundamental topic for population ecology and especially for conservation and metapopulation biology. Most empirical studies ...

Please provide your email address to receive an email when new articles are posted on . In a recent survey study, nearly 80% of physicians overestimated the probability of successful patient outcomes ...

Statisticians who study coincidences are fond of saying that ordinary people don’t know how to estimate the probabilities of coincidences. To illustrate our poor statistical thinking, statisticians ...