Long before statistical whiz Nate Silver predicted the outcome of the 2012 presidential election and "Moneyball" became a household word, structural engineers employed the Monte Carlo method of ...

Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DPRA) represents a significant evolution in the evaluation of nuclear power plant safety, integrating time-dependent models of system evolution with stochastic ...

Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSA), which was introduced in the 1970s as complement to deterministic safety analysis methods, is a well-established tool that supports design and safety assessment ...

Monte Carlo simulation is a technique used to demonstrate risk and a range of possible outcomes, in which a financial plan is put through thousands of possible return paths for the portfolio to ...

Risk isn’t merely about the odds of winning. It’s about the severity of loss when things go wrong. The low-leverage index outperformed the high-leverage index by 103% over the decade, and surpassed ...

Just because a critical failure hasn’t happened yet doesn’t mean it won’t happen in the future. The question becomes: If it ...

Interest rate derivatives—financial investments whose value depends on interest rates—provide useful information about the risk of short-term rates falling again to the zero lower bound. According to ...