Many government contractors still rely on fragmented systems and static spreadsheets to project what’s ahead. That approach may work for tracking awarded contracts, but it fails to support confident ...

The probability in weather forecasts leaves many people perplexed on if, or when, they should continue with plans, cancel or delay. As summer ramps up across North America, millions of travelers, ...

Adaptive forecasting is a term used to describe several different methods of determining the likelihood of events occurring based on statistical data and variable analysis. These forecasting methods ...

Scientists have created a novel probabilistic model for 5-minutes ahead PV power forecasting. The method combines a convolutional neural network with bidirectional long short-term memory, attention ...

Americans have long been familiar with “horse race” polls that accompany elections in the United States. But since 2008, a new polling tool has gained prominence, one that not only suggests which ...

Forecasting a central scenario for the U.S. economy in 2026 appears to be a straightforward exercise. But the probability that this baseline forecast would materialize probably does not exceed 50%: ...

This is a preview. Log in through your library . Abstract The study of judgment under uncertainty has revealed that people judge the probability of an event to be higher when the event is described as ...

“Statistical prediction is only valid in sterile laboratory conditions, which suddenly isn't as useful as it seemed before” — Gary King, political scientist and quantitative methodologist Imagine you ...